Be careful not to fall for the supply shock narrative

We have created a liquid tradeable BTC proxy, including ETPs, close-ended funds, and tokenized BTC. Its peaks coincide with the 2021 rallies. It currently sits at 20.4%, a sizable difference from the current exchange balance share of 13%.
Source: Glassnode, Skew, Dune, MicroStrategy, Tesla, Square, Meitu, Aker, Bytetree, VanEck, Proshares, Hashdex, StatusInvest

On Thursday last week, we published an article exploring and providing context to why traders should be cautious when interpreting on-chain narratives covering bitcoin.

Since April 2020, the exchange balance has been in a steady and sustained decline, falling from 17% of the circulating supply to 13% leading many to entertain the thought of a supply shock in bitcoin, which should cause the BTC price to increase in the future.

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