Preview
11 Oct 2022
Big macro week: FOMC minutes, PPI and CPI
While volatility has plunged to extremely low levels, Thursday may present a volatility catalyst as September’s U.S. CPI data will be released.
This Thursday is likely to be volatile in the markets as the market awaits the U.S. September CPI release. The year-over-year forecast for the forthcoming CPI release on Thursday at 14:30 CET is estimated to be 8.1%, with a month-over-month growth in CPI of 0.2% and a MoM growth in core CPI of 0.5%.Last month’s CPI release was higher than expected, and the release ignited a huge sell-off in BTC, leading BTC to plunge by 10% on the day of the release in tight correlation to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq as the market buckled up for a hawkish FOMC to follow. Source: Investing.comSince the last CPI release, BTC has slightly outperformed Nasdaq while underperforming S&P 500 slightly. However, on a relative strength basis, BTC has held off strongly lately. BTC has recovered from its Sept 21st FOMC press conference bottom of -17.8%, while both Nasdaq and S&P 500 have fallen since the FOMC.Nevertheless, correlations between equities and BTC is evidently high, and BTC and the overall crypto market are likely to experience volatility if CPI once again misses expectations.