How much energy will Bitcoin consume in the future?

This article estimates the development in Bitcoin's energy usage towards 2040. Will it become so massive that Bitcoin will be unable to scale, or will it be too low to secure the system? Or maybe somewhere in the middle? Let's find out.

The focus of the Bitcoin energy debate is almost entirely on Bitcoin's current energy consumption, with little regard to how it will evolve in the future. In this article, I estimate Bitcoin's future energy consumption based on several price scenarios and outline how variations in factors like transaction fees and electricity prices could impact my estimate.

What determines Bitcoin's future energy consumption?

Before diving into the estimates, we should understand what determines Bitcoin's future energy consumption. The most significant variables are the bitcoin price, the transaction fees, the percentage of revenue the miners spend on electricity, and the miners' average electricity price.

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