Grayscale has just filed to convert their $40 billion Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into an ETF. It will be spot-based and hold actual bitcoin - not bitcoin futures as the already approved ETFs.
Does the market expect SEC to approve GBTC as the first spot bitcoin ETF in the US? We can use the GBTC premium/discount as a proxy for the market's expectations that the SEC will approve the ETF.