Low expectations for a spot bitcoin ETF

Shares in the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust have never traded at a higher discount – indicating that the market is not expecting the SEC to accept a spot-based ETF.
Source: NYDIG, Glassnode

Grayscale has just filed to convert their $40 billion Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into an ETF. It will be spot-based and hold actual bitcoin - not bitcoin futures as the already approved ETFs.

Does the market expect SEC to approve GBTC as the first spot bitcoin ETF in the US? We can use the GBTC premium/discount as a proxy for the market's expectations that the SEC will approve the ETF.

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