Futures
Futures basis remains low but sees a slight growth following recent strength in bitcoin. FTX still trades at a +1% premium to the Binance futures, a deviation that has now held for nearly three weeks since the May 12th crash.Preview
Nothing new under the sun: Funding rates still at or below base line
Funding rates remain at or below neutral. We’re now five days away from half a year of funding rates at or below neutral.Preview
Shorts squeezed?
Monday evening, perp OI reached a new ATH of 307,189 BTC before plunging by 18,000 BTC as BTC surpassed $31,000.Preview
Long/short ratio declining to Q1 territory
After surging prior to the May 12th crash, the long/short ratio on Binance’s BTCUSDT perp has declined towards the Q1 average.Preview
The long/short ratio illustrates the proportion of net long and net short accounts to total accounts with positions. Each account is only counted once. A long account is defined as an account with net long exposure and vice versa.It’s important to emphasize that the open interest in the perps is always net neutral. However, it is interesting to gauge the sentiment and current consensus trade to reflect on the state of the leveraged market. Currently, the consensus seems to be bearish, with the long/short ratio sitting at historically low levels slightly above 1. Prior to the LUNA crash, we saw a surge in the long-short ratio, climbing above 3. This has previously tended to be a decent signal of overconfidence. Hope and high leverage from retail longs were key ingredients in the large liquidation cascades last year and also this May. While a high long/short ratio has tended to foreshadow large selling pressure, a low long/short ratio of around 1 has not been as precise. We note that the long/short ratio reached an all-time low prior to the BTC peak in late March.
Bitcoin dominance in derivatives market growing
Open interest in BTC futures and perps now account for 63% of the open interest in the crypto futures market after growing from 50% in early April. This suggests that the speculative interest in alts is diminishing.Preview