What a farce: FTX collapse and its implications

I am beyond disappointed. The FTX situation is extremely bearish, will impact the regulatory outlook, dampen institutional presence and likely keep us at painful lows for at least 6-12 months.

I am beyond disappointed. The FTX situation is extremely bearish, will impact the regulatory outlook, dampen institutional presence and likely keep us at painful lows for at least 6-12 months. Hindsight is 20/20 – but I did not see this coming. 2022 has been an awful year on multiple accounts, and we’ve watched it all gradually deteriorate and meltdown in front of our eyes.

My take: TLDR

  1. Very bearish.

  2. This will likely have negative regulatory implications on the market.

  3. This will likely lead to a further dampening of institutional presence in the market.

  4. This will likely have contagion implications, likely to be reflected in BTC facing new legs down.

  5. A new trading range will appear, analogous to the non-eventful price action since July.

  6. I reckon this range will last painfully long (6-12 mths).

  7. Altcoins, particularly layer 1-s, and specifically the Solana ecosystem, will suffer massively. Do not buy the dip.

  8. Binance is consolidating its leadership role in anticipation of Fidelity, Schwab, Citadel, and more taking market shares. We will see this evolve in the coming years.

  9. All in all, this has been a defining structural shift for the market, and correlations to other assets will plunge.

  10. ETF dismissals have attracted retail to risky platforms. The prudent response is to approve a BTC ETF, facilitating trading of paper bitcoin through a sound environment run by adults.

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